Construction of Mortality Rate Using Heligman Pollard Model

¹ Statistics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung
² Master Program in Actuarial, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung
³ Undergraduate Program in Actuarial, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung

^* e-mail: ikur_ain@itb.ac.id
^** e-mail: 20823005@mahasiswa.itb.ac.id
^*** e-mail: 20823016@mahasiswa.itb.ac.id
^**** e-mail: 20823016@mahasiswa.itb.ac.id

Abstract

The idea of constructing a mortality table lies in reflecting the mortality changes of the member of the study population. This study proposed a construction of the mortality table for male and female participants using the Heligman Pollard model and was evaluated using the latest national mortality table published by BPJS Kesehatan Indonesia, Tabel Mortalitas Penduduk Indonesia 2023 (TMPI-23). This research used BPJS Kesehatan Indonesia data set, from 2018 to 2021. The methodology applied in this study includes calculating exposure and death counts at each age, determining the crude mortality rate under the Makeham law of mortality assumption, and fitting the result with Heligman Pollard model. Heligman Pollard is one of the graduation methods to capture different mortality patterns throughout entire life span. It has eight-parameter framework composed of three interval ages. The initial term represents the declining in mortality at childhood age. The middle term represents the peak at around age 23 as observed in many mortality tables. And the final term represents the exponential increase of mortality at adult age. The Heligman Pollard estimates then being evaluated using TMPI-23. The MSE values result of both male and female participants are 0.056 and 0.055 respectively.