Preliminary research on adaptability of municipalities in the sub-basin of Nysa Kłodzka using multidimensional comparative analysis

The aim of this article is to present a preliminary assessment of the adaptability of Polish municipalities to the flood hazard. In the conducted studies municipalities were understood not only as basic local government units in Poland, but also as social-ecological systems. The study covered 18 municipalities situated in the sub-basin of Nysa Kłodzka. This region has suffered from numerous floods in the past, and adverse consequences in the form of material losses as well as in human victims let us acknowledge this part of Poland to be one of the most threatened by floods. The analyses used data available in the public domain (mainly from the Statistics Poland database; Polish abbr. GUS) as well as obtained using the questionnaire created for this purpose. The preliminary studies on adaptability of the municipalities in the area of the sub-basin of Nysa Kłodzka have been conducted using the data form the period of 2010-2016. The starting point for conducting a multidimensional comparative analysis, and at the same time the selection of 110 gained diagnostic variables describing 18 determinants of SES adaptability to flood hazard was the identification of 2 main factors determining SES’ adaptability (its adaptive potential and adaptive capacity), and 4 categories of determinants of its adaptability (human capital and social potential, financial potential, ecological potential and organizational potential). The initial selection of the diagnostic variables was made using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The proposed logic of aggregation and selection of these variables can be adapted for the adaptability studies on other territorial units and for study on their adaptability to different kinds of threats.


Introduction
The projection of climate changes alleged, among others, in global reports of IPCC [1], and in Poland, e.g. in the reports of the project CLIMATE [2] or in the City Plans of Climate Change Adaptation (Polish abbr. MPA) [3] unambiguously confirm that one should prepare for increase in the frequency and intensity of natural phenomena, especially floods.
In Poland the municipality performs the statutory prerogatives regarding flood protection at the local level [4], and it is the basic unit of local government (LGU). The municipality is also an entity participating in the implementation of the assumptions of the socalled flood directive [5]. On its basis, the Flood Risk Assessment was carried out in Poland (also at the municipal level), the Maps of Flood Hazard (MFH, Polish abbr. MZP), Maps of Flood Risk (MFR, Polish abbr. MRP) were prepared, as well as the Flood Risk Management Plans for the River Basin Areas and Water Regions (FRMP, Polish abbr. PZRP) [6]. Hierarchizing municipalities in relation to particular categories of flood hazard (in FRMP, there are 4 identified: health and life of citizens, economic activity, environment and cultural heritage) it was recognized that all municipalities in Poland are characterized by the same level of adaptability to the flood hazard. The authors take the view that such a methodical assumption is wrong because the municipalities in Poland understood as socialecological systems (SES) are characterized by different adaptive potential and have different adaptive capacity.
Adaptability of the municipality as the SES threatened by flood indicates (current) systems' ability to limit the adverse consequences of floods [7]. This ability is constantly changing as a result of the adaptation process. The main factors determining the adaptability of the municipality-SES threatened by flood is: the adaptive potential taking into account the quantity and quality of resources the municipality can provide, and adaptive capacity meaning the municipality's ability to activate its resources for rational flood risk management [7].
The aim of the article is to present the preliminary assessment of adaptability of municipalities located in the sub-basin of Nysa Kłodzka to the flood hazard, using multidimensional comparative analysis.
For this purpose, a synthetic adaptation index (SAI) has been developed. Authors concern those municipalities not only as the basic LGUs in Poland, but also as independent working social-ecological systems (SES) [7,8].
Development of methodology for assessing the adaptability of municipalities as the SES to flood hazard will allow hierarchy (ranking) of these units due to various characteristics (determinants) characterizing these municipalities.
Therefore, the conducted analyses constitute a non-technical issue of the development of flood risk protection methods aimed at categorizing local government units in terms of adaptation to flood hazard, as well as rational targeting of assistance sometimes constituting a strategic state intervention towards those units where the adverse consequences of flood cause long term SES (municipality) dysfunctions.

The research area
The river Nysa Kłodzka with its length of 182 km constitutes left-bank tributary of Oderone of the main rivers of Poland. It wells up from the Śnieżnik Massif, then it flows through the Kłodzko Structural Basin, the Sudety Foreland and the Silesian Lowland. In terms of the territorial division of Poland, the Nysa Kłodzka river's sub-basin flows through 18 municipalities (figure 1). Those basic administrative units which in turn belong to 5 counties and 2 voivodeships: Dolnośląskie and Opolskie. Basic information on municipalities in terms of: territorial division and flood hazard, were posted in the table 1. The analysis of MFH and MFR, as well as assigned particular levels of flood risk which were determined as the part of the FRMP project indicated that the municipalities located in the sub-basin of Nysa Kłodzka have high and very high level of flood risk (table 1).
Numerous historic floods, huge material losses and human losses, aspire the discussed region as the area particularly threatened to flood occurrence and vulnerable to their adverse consequences. This was an important reason for undertaking research on the assessment of the SES' adaptability for the municipalities located in this very region.
The analysis of MFR and MFH indicated, among others, that within the area of discussed sub-basin there are approximately 15 thousand people threatened by the flood waters with the probability (p) of occurrence 1% (the so-called one hundred year water). With such probability of occurrence of flood the area of potential flooding, in particular municipalities, varies from around 1 to 30% of total areas of those municipalities, and the lost assets (potential flood losses) from around 10 to over 145 mln PLN (table 1).

Materials and methods
Operationalization of the term social-ecological system (SES) in the context of specificity of the Polish municipality [7] as a basic LGU threatened by flood allowed to determine 2 main factors determining the adaptability of the SESthe adaptive potential and adaptive capacity. These factors affect the categories of SES' adaptability, 4 of which were identified in the conducted research: K1human capital and social potential, K2financial potential, K3ecological potential and K4organizational potential. It was recognized that the ecological potential, economical potential, as well as human capital and social potential affect the adaptive potential, while organizational potential, human capital and social potentialon the adaptive capacity. The designation of 4 main categories of municipality's adaptability describing this feature of the SES allowed to diagnose the determinants of SES adaptability. In the conducted analyses 15 determinants of municipality's adaptability to flood hazard were separated together (figure 2). This choice constituted a starting point for searching for data in the public domain which would enable a comprehensive diagnosis and the broadest possible description of the chosen determinant of the SES adaptability to the flood hazard. It was also guided by the principle saying that these determinants should include main attributes of the social system and ecological system, as well as point the current and anticipated challenges accompanying the functioning of the SES [7].
It has been assumed that particular determinants of SES adaptability will be described by diagnostic variables (indicators). It was also assumed that all the diagnostic variables have the same impact on the assessment of adaptability. The diagnostic variables, meaning the basic indicators describing a given determinant of SES adaptability, were first sought in two independent areas: 1  It was sent to the officials working in the municipalities located in the sub-basin of Nysa Kłodzka, who are responsible for making decisions concerning flood protection and crisis management. All respondents answered, unfortunately not always those were full answers. The data set concerns the years 2010-2016. This way a set of 110 elements was created, a set of potential diagnostic variables 110 1 , ,..., j X j  and the values of these variables were obtained in particular years. The statistical material was initially prepared by the method of overall overview. Next, using the arithmetic average, the realizations implementation of diagnostic variables was averaged. It is a way to perform, among others, in the classic approach to multidimensional comparative analysis (MCA) [13][14][15][16][17]. Such data one can present in the form of indicator matrix.
MCA methods are statistical methods allowing comparison of different objects, i.e. voivodeships, while taking into account many of the features characterizing them, such as demographic or economic indicators [18][19][20]. MCA methods are used to study complex directly unmeasured phenomena characterizing determined objects subject to analysis. These objects should create relatively homogeneous set. Initially the MCA based solely on historical data in the form of time series. The arithmetic averages of characteristics are used in this classic approach. Due to these transformations, part of the information may be lost. The lost is greater, the more dynamically analyzed quantities change over time. The quantities of indicators can be predicted on the basis of historical data. The prediction is used, among others, in a dynamic approach of MCA.
The aim of the research work was the assessment of adaptability of 18 municipalities located in the subbasin of Nysa Kłodzka to the flood hazard. The research method adopted by the authors was based on a synthetic variable MCA linear ordering method in its classical and non-pattern approach. The ranking of considered municipalities was based on a set of values, specially created synthetic variable A, i.e. synthetic adaptability index (SAI). This variable was built with the use of diagnostic variables (indicators).
Construction of the set of diagnostic variables was two-step and it lied in selection of potential indicators. The criteria of choice are mainly of statistical nature. Potential diagnostic variables removed from the set include: 1. not very diverse, i.e. those for which the absolute value of the classic coefficient of variation is less than 10%, as well as those of which vast majority of realizations is the same number, 2. too strongly correlated, i.e. with similar information potential, by eliminating one variable from each pair of too closely related indicators, however, cases of apparent correlation were not taken into account. In the correlation analysis the critical value r* of Pearson's correlation coefficient was used [14,21]. This value was determined from the formula:   influencing on the process of adaptation of the municipality to the flood hazard. Such tool would allow the municipal authorities to select good practices applied by the partner municipalities. Implementation of these practices should lead to the improvement of municipal adaptability to the identified and predictable flood hazard. 1. This work was financially supported by project named: Development of Urban Adaptation Plans for cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants in Poland (Polish abbr. -MPA). The project is financed by the European Union from the Cohesion Fund and the state budget as part of technical assistance for the Infrastructure and Environment Program. 2. The authors presented the thesis of the research work at the scientific seminar concerned with meteorology, hydrology, water management and mathematical modelling in environmental science [24].
3. The conducted studies constitute the repercussion of the project Analysis of factor determining resilience of municipalities as social-ecological systems in the Nysa Kłodzka sub-basin. This project has been awarded by the Wprost Weekly and the POLPHARMA Foundation within the frames of the competition "Young & Talented 2016: My idea for Poland", the winner of which was Grzegorz Dumieński.