ITM Web Conf.
Volume 31, 2020International Conference “Mathematical Modelling in Biomedicine” 2019
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Published online||09 March 2020|
Modeling the dynamics of population immunity to influenza in Russian cities
1 ITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr., 197101 St. Petersburg, Russia
2 Smorodintsev Research Institute of Influenza, 15/17 prof. Popov street, 197376 St. Petersburg, Russia
Prediction models which will explicitly include the immunity levels of the population are required to plan effective measures for the containment of seasonal epidemics of influenza. The aim of the current work is to develop an approach to herd immunity dynamics modeling, with the long–term goal of employing it as a part of multicomponent model of influenza incidence dynamics. Based on serological studies performed for 52 Russian cities and 2 virus strains (A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2)) in 11 years period, we propose statistical models which allow to analyze and predict the strain–specific immunity dynamics.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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