| Issue |
ITM Web Conf.
Volume 31, 2020
International Conference “Mathematical Modelling in Biomedicine” 2019
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 03001 | |
| Number of page(s) | 6 | |
| Section | Epidemiology | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20203103001 | |
| Published online | 09 March 2020 | |
Modeling the dynamics of population immunity to influenza in Russian cities
1 ITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr., 197101 St. Petersburg, Russia
2 Smorodintsev Research Institute of Influenza, 15/17 prof. Popov street, 197376 St. Petersburg, Russia
∗ e-mail: vnleonenko@yandex.ru
∗∗ e-mail: daria.baibus@gmail.com
Prediction models which will explicitly include the immunity levels of the population are required to plan effective measures for the containment of seasonal epidemics of influenza. The aim of the current work is to develop an approach to herd immunity dynamics modeling, with the long–term goal of employing it as a part of multicomponent model of influenza incidence dynamics. Based on serological studies performed for 52 Russian cities and 2 virus strains (A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2)) in 11 years period, we propose statistical models which allow to analyze and predict the strain–specific immunity dynamics.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
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