| Issue |
ITM Web Conf.
Volume 67, 2024
The 19th IMT-GT International Conference on Mathematics, Statistics and Their Applications (ICMSA 2024)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01025 | |
| Number of page(s) | 13 | |
| Section | Mathematics, Statistics and Their Applications | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20246701025 | |
| Published online | 21 August 2024 | |
The impact of the pandemic on the retail industry sales in South Africa: A Box-Jenkins approach
Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, South Africa
* Corresponding author: shongwesc@ufs.ac.za
The objective of this study is to investigate the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the South African retail industry sales using the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) from the time series analysis tool pack called Box-Jenkins methodology. The model with the best fit to the total monthly retail sales series is the SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)12 model as it has the lowest values of the model selection and adequacy measures such as the Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, root mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error. This study concludes that the South African retail industry is remarkably resilient sector because while it was unstable during lockdown, the total retail sales recovered to their pre-intervention levels as soon as less strict lockdown levels were implemented.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2024
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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