ITM Web Conf.
Volume 25, 20192018 3rd International Conference on Intelligent Computing and Cognitive Informatics (ICICCI 2018)
|Number of page(s)||4|
|Published online||01 February 2019|
Trade Conflicts and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations ---An Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Autoregression Model
Faculty of Big Data Statistics and Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
2 New Structural Financial Research Center, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
This paper uses the data from November 2016 to June 2018 to construct a VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of trade wars on the Chinese economy since the trade friction between China and the United States. The empirical results show that the trade conflict between China and the United States will have short-term effects on financial institution loans, net export fluctuations, capital markets, short-term international capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate. After the impact of the trade war, the Chinese economy will have a spontaneous adjustment function, which will cause a certain positive and negative change in economic changes. But over time, the impact of Sino-US trade conflicts on financial institution loans, net export volatility, asset prices, short-term international capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate has gradually weakened until the gradual convergence to the zero axis and the effect disappears.
Key words: Trade conflict / Macroeconomy / Vector autoregression model / Impulse response
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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